Introduction
In the days following Tesla’s high-profile Robotaxi debut in Austin, Wall Street has begun to reassess the electric-vehicle maker’s long-term growth prospects. While second-quarter delivery forecasts point to a modest decline, one of Tesla’s most-bullish analysts has raised his price target by more than 35%, underscoring the potential of autonomous ride-hailing to redefine Tesla’s valuation.
Benchmark’s Bullish Note
On June 26, 2025, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg published a note raising Tesla’s 12-month price target from $350 to $475 per share. Legg argues that the controlled, safety-first rollout of Robotaxi in Austin validates Tesla’s autonomous-mobility thesis and could unlock a multitrillion-dollar opportunity as the service scales globally.
Impact of Robotaxi Pilot
Tesla’s stock traded around $328 on June 25, down slightly year-to-date but up roughly 38% since April on rising hopes for robotaxi revenue streams. Legg attributes this rally to investor recognition that Tesla’s FSD software, once fully scaled, could generate recurring ride-hailing fees—transforming every Tesla on the road into a potential revenue-earning asset.
European Sales Headwinds
Counterbalancing robotaxi optimism are tepid May sales in Europe, where Tesla delivered 13,863 vehicles—a 28% decline from the year prior. Sliding subsidies, inventory gluts, and macroeconomic headwinds have dampened demand in Germany, Norway, and the U.K. While North American deliveries remain healthier, Europe’s slump highlights Tesla’s vulnerability to regional policy shifts.
Q2 Delivery Forecasts
Consensus estimates for Q2 hover around 390,000 total deliveries, down about 5–10% year-over-year but still exceeding Q1 output. UBS projects 366,000 units, while Baird pegs deliveries at 377,000. Given Tesla’s track record of beating internal targets, some investors are cautiously optimistic. Yet any material miss could undermine Legg’s autonomous-mobility premium.
Valuation & Robotics Thesis
Legg’s bullish stance leans heavily on Tesla’s evolution from an automotive OEM to a tech-robotics company. He values Tesla at 53.9 times projected 2028 EBITDA—well above traditional auto peers—and sees upside not in EV sales but in recurring revenue from ride-hailing, energy services, and Optimus robots.
Investor Positioning
Institutional investors have been upping their stakes: Omnia Family Wealth raised its position by 47% in Q1, and several hedge funds added to their Tesla exposure around the Austin launch. Insider selling, however, remains elevated, with key executives offloading roughly $6 million of shares over the past quarter—perhaps signaling profit-taking or personal tax planning.
Risks & Catalysts
Near-term risks include Q2 delivery shortfalls, farther European subsidy cuts, and potential legal challenges to FSD claims. On the flip side, catalysts abound: the broader rollout of Robotaxi beyond Austin, final approval of SB 2807 in Texas, and progress toward genuine Level 4 autonomy could swing sentiment sharply upward.
Long-Term Outlook
Looking ahead, Legg envisions Tesla reclaiming a $1.5 trillion market cap as robotaxis proliferate in major cities, energy-storage revenues grow, and the Optimus robotics division garners commercial contracts. Even if EV growth slows, the robotics and software segments could carry Tesla’s valuation to fresh heights.
Conclusion
Benchmark’s decision to lift Tesla’s price target to $475 underscores the enduring appeal of Musk’s autonomy vision, despite near-term delivery challenges in Europe. For investors, the question is whether the promise of Robotaxi revenue and high-margin software services can outweigh cyclical auto-market headwinds. In Tesla’s case, Wall Street still appears willing to bet on the future rather than the present.
