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    Short Tesla delivery times in China: According to the analyst, "terrifying prospect" for other brands

    Sep 20,2022 | Tesmag

    According to the configurator, since mid-September in China you have only had to wait for one to four weeks for a newly ordered Tesla Model Y RWD to be delivered, and for other variants and the Model 3 it should also be a maximum of ten weeks. At the same time, Tesla introduced an insurance subsidy of around 1,100 euros for deliveries before the end of September. Some observers found this troubling because it suggested declining demand. However, two analysts see exactly the opposite: With shorter delivery times, Tesla will attract more orders – and put the rest of the auto industry under pressure.

    The analyst expects Tesla prices to fall

    Tesla will be able to meet the demand for electric cars quickly and at reasonable prices like no other company, Alexander Potter of investment bank Piper Sandler wrote on Monday, according to a report by StreetInsider. This is made possible by the ever-increasing capacity of the Gigafactory in China, which is now likely to be 22,000 Model 3 and Model Y per week. According to Potter, other brands are finding it difficult to ramp up their electric car production quickly enough.

    For the first time in its history, Tesla is currently not short of batteries, the company's top investor advisor said recently. So a stubborn shortage is over for now, and according to Potter, a general end to shortages is a "terrifying prospect" for other electric car manufacturers. The analyst expects Tesla to start lowering its prices again, gaining market share at the expense of other providers.

    On Monday, Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research also dealt with the shorter Tesla delivery times, not only in China, and came to similar conclusions. According to a graphic he published on Twitter, in the second quarter they had peaked at a good 100 days. According to his data, this was accompanied by a decline in new orders, probably because long waiting times are a deterrent for customers. With increased capacity in China, Tesla can now deliver faster -- and according to Ferragu, that's already fueled an increase in orders this quarter.

    Global gigafactory capacity is growing

    This is how things could continue for the analyst because he sees both the backlog at Tesla continuing to decrease and orders continuing to increase – in a kind of positive self-reinforcement because increasing capacity in Western Tesla factories will also prevent waiting times from becoming significantly longer again. Unlike Piper Sandler's Potter, Ferragu didn't predict falling Tesla prices. But having risen many times before and being described as "embarrassingly high" by CEO Elon Musk back in July, a decline beginning in China doesn't seem out of the question. In combination with short waiting times, that would be good for customers - and at least according to Potter also positive for shareholders.

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